Hourly renewable electricity matching has moved beyond pilot projects and accounting theory. In the United States, buyers and sellers are now trading time-specific clean electricity attributes through dedicated market infrastructure, while major certificate registries can support hourly data and retirement.

Traditional RECs generally prove that one megawatt-hour of renewable electricity was generated, but corporate procurement has usually matched those certificates against electricity consumption over a monthly or annual period. Granular Certificates add time and location information, allowing buyers to identify when electricity was generated and compare it with when electricity was consumed.

The technical infrastructure is no longer the main barrier. The more important questions are whether sufficient buyers will pay for granularity, which hours will command a premium and whether a liquid market can develop beyond a relatively small group of advanced clean-energy buyers.

The first U.S. trading results suggest that buyers are willing to pay more for hourly attributes. They do not yet prove that Granular Certificates will become a mass-market replacement for conventional RECs.

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The United States now has an hourly certificate marketplace

In October 2025, LevelTen Energy, the Granular Certificate Trading Alliance and Intercontinental Exchange launched the first U.S. marketplace specifically designed for trading Granular Certificates. The initial market covers the PJM region and enables participants to transact clean electricity attributes based on the hour in which the underlying electricity was generated.

The market is significant because it introduces organized price discovery. Until recently, many 24/7 carbon-free electricity arrangements were bilateral. Large buyers worked directly with utilities, generators, software providers and registries to assemble portfolios and track hourly performance. Those projects proved hourly matching was possible, but did not create transparent prices for the wider market.

LevelTen reported that matched trade volume in its November 2025 auction increased by 300% compared with the inaugural October auction. In January 2026, matched trade volume increased another 158% compared with November.

These are growth rates from a very young market, so they should not be interpreted as evidence of deep liquidity. They do show that the marketplace has moved from concept to executed transactions.

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Buyers are already paying a premium

The more commercially important signal is price.

In the January 2026 auction, Type 1 Granular Certificates traded between $29 and $35 per MWh. In the March auction, wind and solar certificates traded between $29.40 and $47.77 per MWh. LevelTen calculated that the March transactions represented premiums of approximately 12% to 82% compared with the annualized reference price for 2026 PJM REC futures on the auction day.

That does not establish a permanent premium. The market remains small, and prices can vary by generation month, technology, hour, available supply and buyer requirements.

The results do answer an important question. At least some buyers are willing to pay more for attributes associated with particular times and locations. LevelTen's earlier auction results similarly identified buyer willingness to purchase Granular Certificates above annual REC reference prices.

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Not every hour has the same value

This is where Granular Certificates differ fundamentally from conventional annual REC procurement.

Under annual matching, a buyer primarily needs sufficient eligible certificate volume over the reporting period. Hourly matching exposes scarcity.

Solar generation is concentrated during daylight hours. Wind varies by weather and geography. Demand can peak when renewable output is limited. Clean firm resources such as hydro and nuclear can provide attributes during hours that may be harder to cover using wind or solar alone.

LevelTen's early auction results already show evidence of time-specific demand, including stronger buyer interest during spring and summer shoulder hours.

As the market develops, Granular Certificate prices could therefore reflect generation technology, grid region, season, hour and available clean supply. A megawatt-hour generated at 2 p.m. would not necessarily carry the same attribute value as one generated at 8 p.m.

This is one of the main commercial differences between an hourly certificate market and an annual REC market. Time becomes part of the environmental commodity's value.

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Registry infrastructure is catching up

PJM Environmental Information Services has supported hourly, time-stamped functionality in its Generation Attribute Tracking System since 2023. GATS users can view hourly generation data for eligible PJM generators and convert monthly certificates into hourly certificates, in whole or in part, when they are retired.

Google also worked with M-RETS to expand hourly transaction functionality and enable users to track and retire time-based certificates.

EnergyTag has developed a Granular Certificate framework that addresses time granularity, geographic information, metering integrity, prevention of double counting and registry governance. Accredited organizations can issue Granular Certificates under configurations designed to work with different existing certificate systems.

Standardized tracking allows certificates to be transferred, retired, audited and traded at greater scale.

EnergyTag's project database also shows that the underlying data can be managed at significant volumes. A project involving Google and Flexidao converted more than 10.5 TWh of electricity across seven countries into validated hourly certificates using real meter data linked to existing energy attribute certificates.

The technical case for hourly accounting is therefore considerably stronger than it was only a few years ago.

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Corporate demand remains less certain

Technical capability does not automatically create a deep market.

Some large technology companies have clear reasons to pursue granular procurement. Data centers operate continuously and consume substantial electricity, making the difference between annual renewable purchasing and hourly electricity supply particularly visible.

Google has pursued a 24/7 carbon-free energy goal and helped develop time-based energy attribute certificates. Microsoft is also part of the Granular Certificate Trading Alliance alongside Google, AES and Constellation.

Demand may expand because accounting and target frameworks are changing.

SBTi's Corporate Net-Zero Standard Version 2.0 requires large electricity users to measure and report low-carbon electricity performance using hourly accounting rules, even though hourly matching remains optional for target implementation.

The GHG Protocol has also proposed hourly matching and deliverability requirements as part of revisions to its Scope 2 Guidance. Those proposals are not final, and the GHG Protocol continues to evaluate the approach following consultation.

Buyers should therefore not assume that all future Scope 2 accounting will require hourly certificates. Companies signing multi-year electricity contracts now should, however, consider whether those contracts may still be operating when more granular reporting requirements arrive.

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The willingness to pay will vary

The strongest demand is likely to come from organizations for which hourly information solves a specific problem.

A company with a 24/7 clean electricity target has an obvious reason to buy certificates for uncovered hours.

A hydrogen producer seeking Section 45V eligibility has a different incentive. The final U.S. regulations require hourly matching from 2030 where qualifying EACs are used to substantiate electricity from a specific source. Annual matching remains available through 2029.

Large electricity users working under SBTi Version 2.0 will also have a reason to measure and potentially improve their hourly performance.

Other corporate buyers face a different calculation.

If annual RECs remain sufficient for their accounting framework, corporate target and customer requirements, paying a material premium for hourly certificates may not produce an immediate benefit. Adoption will depend on whether granularity improves the credibility of a claim, reduces future compliance risk or supports a wider electricity decarbonization strategy.

The market may therefore develop in layers rather than shift from annual RECs to hourly certificates in one step.

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Price discovery changes procurement

An organized hourly certificate market provides useful information even before liquidity becomes deep.

Prices can reveal which hours are difficult to supply, where buyers are competing for limited clean generation and which technologies provide attributes the market values most. The Granular Certificate Trading Alliance was established specifically to develop this type of market infrastructure and create greater price transparency based on time and location.

A buyer may find that improving an hourly clean-energy score from 70% to 80% is relatively inexpensive, while moving from 90% toward 100% requires scarce overnight attributes, storage or additional firm clean generation.

Generators can also gain a potential revenue signal. If certificates from particular hours consistently trade at higher prices, generation serving those periods can capture additional environmental attribute value.

Storage is particularly relevant. Granular tracking can distinguish when clean electricity is available and when it is ultimately supplied, creating the possibility of assigning explicit environmental attribute value to time shifting. EnergyTag projects have already tested hourly certificate accounting for utility-scale batteries.

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What companies should do now

Corporate buyers do not need to convert entire REC portfolios to hourly certificates immediately.

They should first understand their electricity consumption at an hourly level. Without reliable interval data, it is difficult to identify matching gaps or calculate where granular products add value.

Buyers should then assess whether existing suppliers, registries and contracts can provide time-stamped generation information and preserve environmental attribute ownership.

Companies entering new PPAs or REC agreements should consider whether contracts provide access to hourly generation data and whether certificates can be transferred or retired in a form compatible with future granular accounting.

Procurement teams should also evaluate the cost of granularity against the specific requirement they are addressing. A voluntary 24/7 target, SBTi reporting, Section 45V and future GHG Protocol reporting may all involve hourly information, but they do not use identical rules.

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The commercial impact

The hourly certificate market has crossed an important threshold.

Granular Certificates can now be issued and retired through established tracking infrastructure, traded through a dedicated U.S. marketplace and priced through actual transactions. Early auctions show that some buyers are willing to pay premiums for time-specific clean electricity attributes.

The market is still young. Current prices and trading volumes should not be treated as mature benchmarks for the broader REC market.

What has changed is that hourly clean electricity now has observable transaction value. As corporate reporting, clean hydrogen rules and electricity procurement become more granular, environmental attribute value can increasingly be differentiated by hour, location and generation technology.

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AFS Commodities works with corporate buyers across renewable electricity and environmental commodity markets. If your organization is evaluating Granular Certificates, hourly REC procurement or the impact of 24/7 electricity accounting on its existing portfolio, contact AFS Commodities to discuss market availability, procurement structures and the role these instruments could play in your electricity strategy.