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Navigating REC Markets in a Changing Energy Landscape: What Corporate Buyers Need to Know

Author
Ryan Rudman
Publication Date
December 22, 2025

Renewable Energy Certificates have become one of the most important instruments for companies seeking to reduce their Scope 2 emissions and demonstrate progress toward sustainability commitments. Yet the REC landscape is not a single market. It is a collection of interconnected, shifting systems shaped by regional regulations, generation profiles, and evolving buyer expectations. As corporate climate goals grow more ambitious and reporting standards become more detailed, navigating these markets requires a deeper level of expertise and a more strategic approach than ever before.

Across North America, REC markets reflect the complexity of the continent’s energy infrastructure and regulatory diversity. In the United States, dozens of state-level compliance programs operate alongside voluntary markets, each with its own rules, technologies, and pricing dynamics. In Canada, provincial frameworks vary widely, and the role of RECs differs significantly depending on the region. Latin America, meanwhile, relies heavily on International Renewable Energy Certificates due to the absence of national tracking systems in most markets. This patchwork creates challenges for companies that want to build consistent, credible decarbonization programs across multiple geographies.

The diversity of these markets is both an opportunity and a challenge. Mature REC systems in certain U.S. states offer deep liquidity, a wide range of technology options, and predictable regulatory structures. Buyers can choose certificates that align with their budget, reporting needs, and sustainability priorities. Yet in regions where policy frameworks are less established, certificate prices may fluctuate, supply may be limited, and verification standards may vary. The result is a marketplace where the same instrument serves very different functions depending on where it is generated and how it is used.

One of the defining features of REC markets is their sensitivity to regulatory change. State-level renewable portfolio standards in the United States influence demand and shape pricing trends. When targets increase or technology carve-outs are introduced, supply and pricing shift accordingly. Policy reversals or uncertainty, on the other hand, can depress investment and create instability. Corporate buyers must therefore pay close attention to state-level developments, even if regulatory changes do not directly affect voluntary purchasing. Compliance markets influence the entire REC ecosystem, affecting both availability and cost for voluntary buyers.

Technology type also plays a significant role in REC selection and perception. Hydropower has historically accounted for a large share of renewable generation across North America, but many companies now prefer certificates from wind or solar projects due to clearer alignment with additionality claims. Solar RECs, in particular, have gained popularity among corporations that want to support the expansion of distributed generation. Meanwhile, emerging technologies such as geothermal, biogas, and offshore wind offer attractive storytelling potential for companies seeking innovative or high-impact procurement options.

These shifts reflect a broader evolution in corporate sustainability expectations. Companies are no longer focused solely on cost efficiency. They want renewable procurement strategies that align with brand identity, demonstrate leadership, and reflect clear environmental integrity. This has contributed to the rise of premium attributes. Buyers increasingly seek RECs that offer more than a generic representation of renewable usage. They want certificates tied to specific geographies, technologies, or social and environmental co-benefits.

The growing focus on premium RECs has implications for portfolio design. Companies must evaluate whether paying a premium for certain attributes drives meaningful value or simply adds cost. This requires understanding both the technical characteristics of the generation project and the expectations of reporting frameworks such as CDP, RE100, and the GHG Protocol. In some cases, premium attributes may strengthen the credibility of a company’s sustainability narrative. In others, they may offer limited benefit relative to their cost. Strategic guidance is essential in making these distinctions.

Another factor shaping REC markets is the increasing scrutiny of claims. Stakeholders expect transparency about project origin, technology type, and certificate retirement. Companies must be prepared to document and verify their procurement choices, particularly if they rely on certificates from legacy assets or from regions with less mature tracking systems. This scrutiny will only intensify as regulators and investors demand greater accountability and as reporting standards evolve to include more granular detail about renewable sourcing.

AFS Commodities USA plays a vital role in helping companies navigate this complexity. The firm offers market intelligence that spans the full range of REC systems across North America and Latin America. This includes analysis of pricing trends, policy developments, supply conditions, and technology profiles. The firm also assists clients in developing portfolios tailored to budget constraints, regulatory obligations, and sustainability commitments. This strategic approach ensures that procurement decisions are both cost effective and aligned with long-term environmental goals.

AFS also provides due diligence on premium attributes, assessing whether specific project characteristics justify higher pricing. This involves reviewing project documentation, evaluating environmental co-benefits, and determining whether certificates meet the expectations of global reporting standards. With this guidance, companies can pursue high-impact procurement without exposing themselves to unnecessary financial or reputational risk.

Looking ahead to 2026, REC markets will continue to evolve as renewable deployment accelerates and as policy frameworks adapt to new climate objectives. Companies that approach procurement with a flexible, informed, and strategic mindset will be best positioned to navigate these changes. Those who rely on short-term decisions or treat RECs as simple commodities may struggle with volatility, misalignment, or credibility concerns.

Renewable Energy Certificates will remain an essential tool for corporate decarbonization, but their value depends on how effectively they are integrated into broader sustainability strategies. With expert support and a clear understanding of market dynamics, companies can build REC portfolios that not only meet emissions reduction goals but also demonstrate leadership in an increasingly complex and competitive energy landscape.