RIN prices are shaped by more than the annual Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO). The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) sets the volumes that obligated parties must meet, but supply, small refinery exemptions (SREs), compliance deadlines and expectations about future EPA decisions also influence the market.

That relationship has been especially visible in 2026. EPA finalized higher renewable fuel volumes for 2026 and 2027 in March, then granted additional exemptions for the 2025 compliance year in August. It said it would propose reallocating the difference between projected and actual 2025 exemptions into the 2026 and 2027 obligations. The extra reallocation was still pending as of October 13, 2026. These events show why market participants need to distinguish between a final rule, a pending proposal and an agency decision that has already taken effect. www.epa.gov

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RIN prices respond to compliance demand and supply

Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) are compliance credits generated by renewable fuel producers. Market participants can trade them, and obligated parties ultimately retire them to meet their RVOs. RINs may be assigned to a batch of fuel or separated from the fuel and traded independently. US EPA

The RFS sets annual volume requirements across categories including cellulosic biofuel, biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel and total renewable fuel. RINs have different D-codes, which determine the categories for which they may count. For example, EPA’s overview shows that D3 RINs can be used toward cellulosic, advanced and total renewable fuel obligations, while D4 RINs count toward biomass-based diesel, advanced and total renewable fuel obligations. US EPA

This category structure means that a headline RIN price does not tell the full story for every buyer or seller. The type and vintage of the RIN, the party’s compliance position and applicable rules all matter. EPA publishes weekly volume-weighted average prices for separated RINs by D-code, based on standard transactions reported through its Moderated Transaction System. Its chart applies filters to remove price outliers, so the reported series is a defined dataset rather than a record of every individual transaction. US EPA

EPA has also said that prices are set by the marketplace and are affected by factors it cannot confidently project, including crude oil prices, agricultural commodity prices and market expectations about future standards or other agency actions. The agency noted that higher volumes in its final 2026–27 rule could result in higher RIN prices, while emphasizing the uncertainty of price projections. epa.gov

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Volume rules set the compliance framework

In March 2026, EPA finalized the 2026 and 2027 Set 2 standards. The final total renewable fuel volume requirements are 25.82 billion RINs for 2026 and 25.98 billion for 2027. With the SRE reallocation finalized in the same rule, total applicable volumes are 26.81 billion and 27.02 billion RINs, respectively. The category requirements and reallocation volumes differ, so the total figure should not be mistaken for a single category target. www.epa.gov

The final rule followed a proposal with lower total renewable fuel requirements. The proposed figures were 24.02 billion RINs for 2026 and 24.46 billion for 2027, before the final adjustments. EPA’s final requirements therefore establish a different compliance baseline from the earlier proposal. This is one reason traders and obligated parties need to track the status of a rule as it moves from proposal to final action. www.epa.gov

EPA estimated that meeting the final volume levels would require biodiesel and renewable diesel production and use to increase by more than 60% compared with 2025 volumes. That is EPA’s estimate of the increase required to meet the standards; it does not guarantee a particular level of production or RIN generation. Actual supply and compliance demand remain separate market data points. www.epa.gov

For buyers, the final RVOs establish the obligations that must be met under the program. For sellers, the volumes provide regulatory context for potential RIN demand. Neither fact alone determines an individual transaction price. EPA’s own analysis notes that crude and agricultural commodity prices, future rule expectations and other market factors also affect RIN prices. epa.gov

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SRE decisions can change expectations

SREs allow qualifying small refineries to petition EPA for temporary relief from RFS obligations on the basis of disproportionate economic hardship. On August 31, 2026, EPA announced decisions on 34 petitions for the 2025 compliance year: 18 were granted full exemptions, 11 received partial 50% exemptions, three were denied and two were found ineligible. EPA said these decisions exempted 1.76 billion RINs for 29 small refineries. www.epa.gov

EPA also said it would propose reallocating 100% of the difference between the projected and actual exempted volumes for the 2025 SREs into the 2026 and 2027 RVOs. The agency announced that it intended to issue this proposal before the end of October 2026. Until EPA publishes and finalizes any additional rule, the proposal should be treated as a pending policy development rather than an enacted increase to the Set 2 volumes. www.epa.gov

SRE decisions can affect how participants assess expected compliance demand and available credits. But a petition, a decision granting an exemption and a later reallocation are separate steps. The number of exemptions already granted does not, by itself, establish how much of the exempted volume will be reassigned to other obligated parties.

EPA has also publicly warned that inaccurate or misleading reports about RFS actions have contributed to significant market movements and volatility. That statement reinforces the value of checking official EPA notices and final rules before acting on reports about exemptions or volumes. www.epa.gov

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Carryover RINs provide limited flexibility

The RFS allows obligated parties to use some prior-year RINs for compliance, but EPA says no more than 20% of the gallon-RINs used to meet an RVO may be from the preceding year. This limit applies to obligated parties, and the RIN must have a vintage one year earlier than the compliance year for which it is used. US EPA

This rule makes vintage relevant to a RIN’s compliance use. A party cannot assume that every credit in its account will remain eligible for every later compliance year. EPA’s public data includes RIN availability, generation, separation and retirement information, giving market participants a way to review reported activity by period and type. US EPA

The program also allows an obligated party that has not retired enough RINs to meet an RVO to carry a deficit into the next compliance year, subject to conditions. EPA states that the deficit must be made up the following year and that the party cannot carry forward a deficit for the next compliance year as well. That makes the deficit provision a limited compliance flexibility, not a substitute for ongoing compliance planning. US EPA

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Deadlines can concentrate compliance activity

Reporting and compliance dates are another part of the market calendar. EPA’s current deadlines page lists October 1, 2026, as the 2025 RFS compliance reporting deadline, following a 30-day extension. The 2026 compliance reporting deadline is March 31, 2027. The 2027 deadline depends on the next quarterly reporting deadline after the 2028 standards become effective. www.epa.gov

The deadlines do not mechanically set RIN prices. They do establish when obligated parties must complete reporting and compliance tasks, and therefore when parties need to confirm their balances, RIN vintages and category coverage. EPA describes RIN retirement as the final compliance step and says obligated parties typically retire RINs after the compliance year, by March 31, subject to applicable rules and any extensions. US EPA

As a deadline approaches, a company’s own shortfall or surplus becomes more important to its purchasing or selling needs. That is a description of compliance timing, not a prediction that prices will move in a particular direction. Market data, official RFS requirements and company-specific compliance information should be considered separately.

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Use official price and volume data carefully

EPA provides a RIN price chart based on weekly, volume-weighted average prices for separated RINs, along with a transaction-volume report for assigned and separated RINs. The agency’s price dataset uses reported standard transactions and applies filters to remove outliers. These definitions matter when comparing EPA’s series with other pricing services or individual offers. US EPA

EPA also publishes RIN generation and retirement data, as well as files showing RINs available to date. These datasets can help users track generation, use and remaining availability. They do not replace the specific compliance account records or contract terms relevant to a buyer or seller. US EPA

A practical review should keep four questions distinct: what standards are final, what exemptions have been granted, what changes remain proposed, and what current price and volume data covers. For 2026–27, that means separating EPA’s final Set 2 volumes and 70% SRE reallocation from the additional 2025 SRE reallocation proposal announced in August. It also means checking the RIN’s category and vintage against the obligated party’s compliance requirements.

RIN prices can respond to changing expectations, but the existence of a policy development does not establish its price effect. The documented facts are the rule volumes, exemption decisions, carryover limits, reporting deadlines and EPA’s published market data. Keeping those facts current helps buyers and sellers assess compliance exposure without treating forecasts or unfinalized proposals as settled outcomes.

For support navigating RIN markets and compliance developments, visit AFS Commodities’ RINs page.